FLOOD SIMULATION IN THE KAMA RIVER BASIN 2005

Section
Methods, models and technologies
  • Andrey L. Vetrov Perm State University, Perm, Russia
  • Aleksei A. Tiunov Kama branch of FSBI Russian Research Institute for the Integrated Use and Protection of Water Resources, Perm, Russia Mining Institute of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences – a branch of the Federal State Budgetary Institution of Science of the Perm Federal Research Center of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Perm, Russia
Keywords: floods, simulation, heavy rain, WRF-ARW, numerical hydrological model, RiverFlow 2D GPU
(+) Abstract

Climate warming is causing an increase in the total moisture content on the planet and in the number of heavy rainfall cases. Modern flood warning systems are still not effective enough, especially in places with a sparse network of meteorological observations. Mathematical models of the atmosphere based on complete equations of hydrodynamics allow us to calculate the intensity of precipitation with high detail with sufficient advance. This paper examines the issue of combining a regional atmospheric model WRF-ARW with a hydrological model for RiverFlow 2D GPU size in order to assess the accuracy of reproduction of rain floods on two rivers of the Ural Kama region: Usva and Obva on June 23-24, 2005. The rise of water levels in the rivers was caused by convective and frontal precipitation on the frontal systems of a deep southern cyclone. In some observation points, up to 50 mm of precipitation fell during the period of 12 hours. At the first stage of the study, model precipitation fields were obtained in nodes of a regular grid with a step of 3 km. The simulation was performed under the condition of non-hydrostatic approximation and direct (without parameterization) simulation of convection on the calculated grid. Then the procedure of preliminary assimilation of precipitation by the hydrological model was carried out. For a mountainous, an underestimation of flood water consumption was found in comparison with the actual data. For the Obva River catchment, an overestimation of the maximum costs compared to the actual costs was revealed. To increase the accuracy of the forecast of maximum levels, it is necessary to take into account the processes of evaporation and infiltration for the period preceding the development of the flood. The results obtained can be taken into account when preparing forecasts of heavy rains occurrence and when developing flood forecast techniques.

(+) About the author(s)

Andrey L. Vetrov,
Perm State University, Perm, Russia

eLibrary (РИНЦ) SPIN-код: 7443-5860

ORCID ID: 0000-0002-3844-0111

Scopus ID: 7004921143

Aleksei A. Tiunov,
Kama branch of FSBI Russian Research Institute for the Integrated Use and Protection of Water Resources, Perm, Russia Mining Institute of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences – a branch of the Federal State Budgetary Institution of Science of the Perm Federal Research Center of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Perm, Russia

eLibrary (РИНЦ) SPIN-код: 9510-8918

ORCID ID: 0000-0003-2015-8828

Scopus ID: 55382659300

(+) References

Belikov V.V., Aleksyuk A.I., Vasil’eva E.S., Belyakova P.A. Novyi podkhod k chislennomu modelirovaniyu bystroformiruyushchikhsya pavodkov na gornykh vodosborakh [A new approach to numerical modeling of rapidly forming floods in mountain catchments]. Sbornik dokladov mezhdunarodnoi nauchnoi konferentsii pamyati vydayushchegosya russkogo uchenogo Yuriya Borisovicha Vinogradova «Chetvertye Vinogradovskie chteniya. Gidrologiya: ot poznaniya k mirovozzreniyu» (g. Sankt-Peterburg, 23–31 oktyabrya 2020 goda) [Proceedings of international scientific conference in memory of outstanding Russian scientist Yury Vinogradov «Fourth Vinogradov Conference «Hydrology: from Learning to Worldview» (St. Petersburg, Russia, October 23–31, 2020]. St. Petersburg, Publ. VVM, 2020, pp. 35–40. (In Russian; abstract in English).

Khristoforov A.V., Yumina N.M., Belyakova P.A. Prognoz pavodkovogo stoka rek Chernomorskogo poberezh'ya Kavkaza s zablagovremennost'yu odni sutki [A one-day lead time flood forecast for rivers of the Black sea coast of the Caucasus]. Vestnik Moskovskogo universiteta. Seriya 5: Geografiya [Moscow University Bulletin. Series 5, Geography], 2015, iss. 3, pp. 50–57. (In Russian; abstract in English).

Smith P.J., Pappenberger F., Wetterhall F., del Pozo J.T., Krzeminski B., Salamon P., Muraro D., Kalas M., Baugh C. On the Operational Implementation of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) In: Adams T.E., Pagano T.C. (eds.) Flood Forecasting: A Global Perspective. Elsevier Inc., 2016, pp. 313–348. DOI: 10.1016/b978-0-12-801884-2.00011-6.

Vasil’eva E.S., Belyakova P.A., Aleksyuk A.I., Belikov V.V., Selezneva N.V. Simulating flash floods in small rivers of the Northern Caucasus with the use of data of automated hydrometeorological network. Water resources, 2021, vol. 48, iss. 2, pp. 182–193. DOI: 10.1134/S0097807821020160. (Russ. ed.: Vasil'eva E.S., Belyakova P.A., Aleksyuk A.I., Selezneva N.V., Belikov V.V. Modelirovanie bystrorazvivayushchikhsya pavodkov na malykh rekakh Severnogo Kavkaza s ispol'zovaniem sovremennykh dannykh avtomatizirovannoi gidrometeorologicheskoi seti. Vodnye resursy, 2021, vol. 48, iss. 2, pp. 135–146. DOI: 10.31857/S0321059621020164.)

Vinogradov A.Yu., Vinogradova T.A., Obyazov V.A., Kadatskaya M.M. Otsenka znacheniya koeffitsienta sherokhovatosti [Assessment of roughness coefficient value]. Gidrosfera. Opasnye protsessy i yavleniya [Hydrosphere. Hazard processes and phenomena], 2019, vol. 1, iss. 4, pp. 462–476. DOI: 10.34753/HS.2019.1.4.462. (In Russian; abstract in English)

(+) Read online

Abstract views: 13
PDF Downloads: 0
Published
2021-11-26
How to Cite
Andrey L. Vetrov, & Aleksei A. Tiunov. (2021). FLOOD SIMULATION IN THE KAMA RIVER BASIN 2005. Hydrosphere. Hazard Processes and Phenomena, 3(3), 250-258. https://doi.org/10.34753/HS.2021.3.3.250

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.