ON RATIONALIZATION OF THE SNOW CHARACTERISTIC MEASUREMENTS FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF SNOWPACK STABILITY ON A SLOPE
Interpretation of the physical and mechanical characteristic measurements of the snowpack is a base for avalanche release prediction. The spatial variability of the measured characteristics and measurement errors can affect the quality of the initial data for assessing the snowpack stability on a slope and results of this assessment. The work describes principles of rationalization for the measurements of the characteristics that influence on snow stability on a slope. The fields of these characteristics and errors of their measurements were considered as random. A few quality criteria for networks measuring snow characteristics on a slope are used. The study includes estimates of the parameters of the spatial statistical structure (variances and autocorrelation functions) for the fields of thickness, density, shear strength and temperature of snowpack on slopes in various mountain regions. Errors of methods for measuring snow characteristics were estimated. It is shown that in different landscapes, spatial patterns of the point measurements should be different. The influence of spatial measurement schemes on the quality of snowpack stability interpretation is analyzed for different parameters of spatial statistical structure of the snow characteristics and accuracy their measurements.
The use of conventional deterministic methods for interpretation of point measurements of snowpack characteristics to assess its stability on the slope can and does lead to incorrect conclusions. The way out of this situation can be the use of statistical simulation based on deterministic models of mechanical stability of snowpack, the input data for which are generated on the basis of point measurements of snow characteristics and previously obtained parameters of their spatial statistical structure. Probabilistic estimates obtained with statistical simulation reflect the uncertainty of the input information in the probabilistic conclusion about the snowpack stability.
Alekseev G.A. Metody otsenki sluchainykh pogreshnostei gidrometeorologicheskoi informatsii. [Methods of as-sessment of random errors of hydrometeorological in-formation]. Leningrad, Publ. Gidrometeoizdat, 1975. 96 p. (In Russian)
Boiko E.S., Pogorelov A.V. Primenenie lazernogo ska-nirovaniya v issledovaniyakh rel'efa i snezhnogo pokrova. Morfometricheskii aspect [The use of laser scanning in studies of topography and snow cover. Morphometric aspect]. Novosibirsk, Publ. Geo, 2012. 147 p. (In Rus-sian)
Bozhinskii A.N. Chernous P.A. Veroyatnostnaya model' ustoichivosti snega na sklonakh gor [A probabilistic model of snow stability on mountain slopes]. Materialy glyatsiologicheskikh issledovanii [Materials of glaciolog-ical studies], 1986, iss. 55, pp. 53-60. (In Russian; ab-stract in English).
Chernous P.A., Barashev N.V., Fedorenko Yu.V. Iz-menchivost' kharakteristik snega i obrazovanie lavin [Variability of snow characteristics and the formation of avalanches]. Led i sneg [Ice and snow], 2010, no 3 (111), pp. 27-36 (In Russian)
Chernous P., Barashev N., Fedorenko Yu. Spatial varia-bility of snow characteristics and snow stability. Pro-ceedings of “International Snow Science Workshop 2008” (September 21st - September 27th 2008, Whistler, British Columbia, Canada). Whistler, 2008, pp. 948-949
Chernouss P.A., Fedorenko Yu.V., Probabilistic evalua-tion of snow-slab stability on mountain slopes. Annals Glaciology, 1998, vol. 26, pp. 303–306.
Chernous P., Fedorenko Yu., Barashev N. Spatial varia-bility of some snow characteristics on a slope and inter-pretation of measurements for snow stability assessment. Proceedings of “International Snow Science Workshop 2006” (October 1 - 6, 2006, Telluride, CO). Telluride, 2006, pp. 339-348
Chernous P.A., Khristoev Yu.V. Otsenka tochnosti dannykh o tolshchine snega v lavinosborakh [Evaluation of the accuracy of data on the snow thickness in ava-lanche sites]. Materialy glyatsiologicheskikh issledovanii [Materials of glaciological studies], 1986, publ. 55, pp. 201–206. (In Russian)
Chernous P.A., Osokin N.I., Chernov R.A. Pros-transtvennaya izmenchivost' tolshchiny snezhnogo pokrova na gornom sklone (arkhipelag Shpitsbergen) [Spatial variability of the snow depth on mountain slope in Svalbard]. Led i sneg [Ice and snow], 2018, vol 58, no 3, pp. 353-358. DOI: 10.15356/2076-6734-2018-3-353-358 (In Russian; abstract in English)
Chernous P.A., Seliverstov Yu.G., Suchkov V.E. Vliyanie kharakteristik snega na lavinoobrazovanie [Snow variability effect upon avalanching]. Led i sneg [Ice and snow], 2015, vol 55, no 2, pp. 53-59. DOI: 10.15356/2076-6734-2015-2-53-59 (In Russian; abstract in English)
Chirkova A.A. Osobennosti strukturnykh funktsii glu-biny snezhnogo pokrova v zavisimosti ot kharaktera rel'efa lavinnykh ochagov [Features of the structural functions of the snow depth depending on the character of the relief of avalanche starting zones]. Trudy SAR-NIGMI [Proceedings of Middle Asia Regional Research Hydrometeorological Institute], 1977a, publ. 37 (118), pp. 43-50. (In Russian)
Chirkova A.A. Statisticheskii analiz raspredeleniya glu-biny snezhnogo pokrova na malykh ploshchadyakh v gorakh [Statistical analysis of the snow depth distribu-tion on small areas in the mountains] Trudy SARNIGMI [Proceedings of Middle Asia Regional Research Hydro-meteorological Institute], 1977b, publ. 32 (113), pp. 40-54. (In Russian)
Drozdov O.A., Shepelevskii A.A. Teoriya interpolyatsii v stokhasticheskom pole meteorologicheskikh elementov i ee primenenie k voprosam meteorologicheskikh kart i ratsionalizatsii seti [The theory of interpolation in a sto-chastic field of meteorological elements and its applica-tion to issues of meteorological maps and network ra-tionalization]. Trudy NIUGUGMS [Proceedings of Re-search Establishment of Main Department of Hydrome-teorology], 1946, iss, 13, seria 1, pp. 65-115. (In Rus-sian)
Kanaev L.A. Ob izmenchivosti svoistv snega [On the variability of snow properties]. Trudy SARNIGMI [Pro-ceedings of Middle Asia Regional Research Hydromete-orological Institute], 1969, iss. 44 (59), pp. 25–42 (In Russian)
Kazakevich D.I. Osnovy teorii sluchainykh funktsii i ee primenenie v gidrometeorologii [Fundamentals of the theory of random functions and its application in hydro-meteorology]. Leningrad, Publ. Gidrometeoizdat, 1977. 320 p. (In Russian)
Moskalev Yu.D., Kanaev L.A. Prakticheskoe posobie po prognozirovaniyu lavinnoi opasnosti [A practical guide for avalanche hazard forecasting]. Leningrad, Publ. Gidrometeoizdat, 1979. 200 p. (In Russian)
Solov'ev V.A., Yakhontova V.E. Elementarnye metody obrabotki rezul'tatov izmerenii [Elementary methods for processing of measurement results]. Leningrad, Publ. of Leningrad University, 1977. 73 p. (In Russian)
Voitkovskii K.F., Golubev V.N. Voitkovskii V.K. Pros-transtvennaya izmenchivost' stroeniya i svoistv snezh-nogo pokrova na sklonakh gor [The spatial variability of the structure and properties of the snow cover on the mountain slopes]. Vestnik MGU. Seria V. Geografia [Vestnik Moskovskogo Universiteta. Seria 5, Geografia], 1986, No 1, pp. 80-86. (In Russian)
Zhukovskii E.B., Kiseleva E.L., Mandel'shtam S.M. Statisticheskii analiz sluchainykh protsessov [Statistical analysis of random processes]. Leningrad, Publ. Gidro-meteoizdat, 1978. 408 p. (In Russian)
Abstract views: 92 PDF Downloads: 12
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.