FORECASTING OF THE EXTREME WINTER LOW FLOW FOR THE NORILKA RIVER
The object of the study is the Norilka River, located in the North of the Krasnoyarsk territory. Only 45% of the norm of precipitation fell in the basin of the Norilka River for the period from October 2012 to May 2013, that resulting in an extremely low spring flood formation. The feeding of the large lakes that form the river flow was also limited, as dry weather set in during the summer. This caused great concern regarding the water availability of water intakes of mining and processing plant in the city of Norilsk for the winter of 2014. The situation required the solution of a complex of hydrological tasks, the main of which is the development of a forecast of minimum water consumption for the winter of 2014. The forecast was developed using relationship between area pre-winter moistening with intensity of the winter runoff depletion. Since the capacity of the ice cover can significantly affect to decrease of the river flow, the hydrological forecast takes into account the long-term air temperatures forecast for 2013-2014 winter period. It was obtained the forecast that the minimum monthly discharge for April would be at about 22 m3/s, meanwhile daily discharge 20 m3/s. The received results were a basis for carrying out the measures directed on maintenance of steady water supply with need discharge in 7 m3/s. The low ground dam below water intakes was arranged at backwater on a site of water intakes for August-September 2013. The actual flow discharge for April 2014 was about 14 m3/s. Therefore, the construction of the dam was justified and interruptions of water supply of the plant did not happen. The methodological approaches applied to the solution of this problem can be useful in case of similar situations in the Northern regions of Russia.
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