POSSIBILITIES OF THE LONG-RANGE INFLOW FORECAST TO THE BUREYSKAYA RESERVOIR

Section
Methods, models and technologies
  • Boris I.Gartsman Water Problems Institute, RAS, Moscow, Russia; Pacific Geographical Institute, FEB RAS, Vladivostok, Russia
  • Oleg V. Sokolov Pacific Geographical Institute, FEB RAS, Vladivostok, Russia; Primorskoe Administration for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring, Vladivostok, Russia
  • Sergei Yu. Lupakov Water Problems Institute, RAS, Moscow, Russia; Pacific Geographical Institute, FEB RAS, Vladivostok, Russia
Keywords: dynamic–stochastic modeling, multidimensional stochastic modeling, analog method, Bureya, precipitation forecast, inflow forecast

Development of the long-range inflow forecast system to the Bureyskaya reservoir, carried out in 2008-2010 at the request of the RusHydro Company, is presented. Estimations were performed based on terms of statistical probabilities with about month-quarter lead-time. Considering features of extreme flow formation processes and wetness of territory, the focus was warm period (June-September), which is known for its heavy rainfall events.

During the investigations there were examined the dynamic-stochastic approach, based on the deterministic hydrological model with using of meteorological characteristics ensemble by weather generator as input, and inflow forecast to the reservoir in terms of probability curve based on multidimensional stochastic modeling. The project included two main stages: development of precipitation and temperature forecast method with month-six months lead-time; development of inflow probabilistic forecast method with month-quarter lead-time based on expected values of precipitation and temperature.

Methods pretesting demonstrated reasonable inflow forecast reliability (about 90%), mean absolute deviation of expected inflow volume from observed is 23-28% relative to mean value. Driven by the developed framework, it was forecasted precipitation sums and reservoir inflow at the individual seasons. By comparing of measured and forecasted values, it was made a conclusion, that accuracy of the forecast scheme is satisfactory. The mean values of the precipitation forecast reliability is
75-80%. Forecasted reservoir inflow in 2009 and 2010 is assessed as close to a measured one.

Boris I.Gartsman,
Water Problems Institute, RAS, Moscow, Russia; Pacific Geographical Institute, FEB RAS, Vladivostok, Russia

E-mail: gartsman@inbox.ru
eLibrary (РИНЦ) SPIN-код: 7792-9120
Scopus ID: 24438012800
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-5876-7015

Oleg V. Sokolov,
Pacific Geographical Institute, FEB RAS, Vladivostok, Russia; Primorskoe Administration for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring, Vladivostok, Russia

E-mail: viator.im@gmail.com
eLibrary (РИНЦ) SPIN-код: 2988-3945
Scopus ID: 56165552300
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-2522-4660
Почтовый адрес:
 119333 г.Москва, ул.Губкина 3. ИВП РАН
Контактный телефон для связи с авторами статьи: +7 915 03 02 08, +7 984 155 17 77

Sergei Yu. Lupakov,
Water Problems Institute, RAS, Moscow, Russia; Pacific Geographical Institute, FEB RAS, Vladivostok, Russia

E-mail: rbir@mail.ru
eLibrary (РИНЦ) SPIN-код: 9365-4537
Scopus ID: 57195678222
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-5804-2604

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Published
2019-12-23
How to Cite
Boris I.Gartsman, Oleg V. Sokolov, & Sergei Yu. Lupakov. (2019). POSSIBILITIES OF THE LONG-RANGE INFLOW FORECAST TO THE BUREYSKAYA RESERVOIR. Hydrosphere. Hazard Processes and Phenomena, 1(3), 426-449. https://doi.org/10.34753/HS.2019.1.3.004

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