POSSIBILITIES OF THE LONG-RANGE INFLOW FORECAST TO THE BUREYSKAYA RESERVOIR
Development of the long-range inflow forecast system to the Bureyskaya reservoir, carried out in 2008-2010 at the request of the RusHydro Company, is presented. Estimations were performed based on terms of statistical probabilities with about month-quarter lead-time. Considering features of extreme flow formation processes and wetness of territory, the focus was warm period (June-September), which is known for its heavy rainfall events.
During the investigations there were examined the dynamic-stochastic approach, based on the deterministic hydrological model with using of meteorological characteristics ensemble by weather generator as input, and inflow forecast to the reservoir in terms of probability curve based on multidimensional stochastic modeling. The project included two main stages: development of precipitation and temperature forecast method with month-six months lead-time; development of inflow probabilistic forecast method with month-quarter lead-time based on expected values of precipitation and temperature.
Methods pretesting demonstrated reasonable inflow forecast reliability (about 90%), mean absolute deviation of expected inflow volume from observed is 23-28% relative to mean value. Driven by the developed framework, it was forecasted precipitation sums and reservoir inflow at the individual seasons. By comparing of measured and forecasted values, it was made a conclusion, that accuracy of the forecast scheme is satisfactory. The mean values of the precipitation forecast reliability is
75-80%. Forecasted reservoir inflow in 2009 and 2010 is assessed as close to a measured one.
Barnston A.G., Livezey R.E. Classification, Seasonality and Persistence of Low-Frequency Atmospheric Circu-lation Patterns. Monthly Weather Review, 1987, vol. 115, no 6, pp. 1083-1126. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<1083:CSAPOL>2.0.CO;2
Draper N.R., Smith H. Applied Regression Analysis. Second Edition. New-York, John Wiley & Sons, 1981. 709 p. (Russ. ed.: Dreiper N., Smit G. Prikladnoi re-gressionnyi analiz: v 2-kh knigakh. Kniga 1. Moscow, Publ. Finansy i statistika, 1986. 366 p.).
Gartsman B.I., Gubareva T.S. Forecast of the rainfall flood hydrograph on the Far East rivers Russian Mete-orology and Hydrology, 2007, vol. 32, iss. 5,
pp. 328-335. (Russ. ed.: Gartsman B.I., Gubareva T.S. Prognoz gidrografa dozhdevyh pavodkov na rekah Dal'nego Vostoka. Meteorologija i gidrologija, 2007, no. 5, pp. 70-80). DOI: 10.3103/S1068373907050068
Gartsman B.I., Gubareva T.S., Bugaets A.N.,
Makagonova M.A. Kratkosrochnyi prognoz pritoka vody v vodokhranilishche Bureiskoi GES [Short time forecast of Burejskaya reservoir inflow]. Gidrotehnich-eskoe stroitel'stvo [Power Technology and Engineering (Russia)], 2009, no. 1, pp. 11-20. (In Russian).
Gruza G.V. Opyt primeneniya statisticheskikh glavnykh komponent (estestvennykh ortogonal'nykh sostavlyayushchikh) v tekhnike korrelyatsionnogo prognoza [Experience in application of statistical prin-cipal components (natural orthogonal constituents) for correlational prediction]. Trudy Sredneaziatskogo nauchno-issledovatel'skogo gidrometeorologicheskogo instituta [Writings of Scientific Research Hydromete-orological Institute (NIGMI) of Uzhydromet (Russia)], 1969, vol. 40, iss. 55, pp. 19-36. (In Russian).
Gruza G.V. Prognosticheskie modeli v meteorologii i statisticheskie prognozy [Prediction model in meteor-ology and statistical forecasts]. Trudy VNIIGMI-MTsD [Writings of All Russian Research Institute of Hydrome-teorological Information - World Data Center (Rus-sia)], 1977, vol. 35, pp.3-10. (In Russian).
Ishii M., Shouji A., Sugimoto S., Matsumoto T. Objec-tive analyses of sea‐surface temperature and marine me-teorological variables for the 20th century using ICO-ADS and the Kobe Collection. The International Jour-nal of Climatology, 2005, vol. 25, iss. 7,
pp. 865-879. DOI: 10.1002/joc.1169
Kalnay E., Kanamitsu M., Kistler R., Collins W., Deaven D., Gandin L., Iredell M., Saha S., White G., Woollen J., Zhu Y., Chelliah M., Ebisuzaki W., Hig-gins W., Janowiak J., Mo K.C., Ropelewski C., Wang J., Leetmaa A., Reynolds R., Jenne R., Joseph D. The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 1996, vol. 77, no. 3, pp. 437-472. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2
Kartvelishvili N.A. Stokhasticheskaya gidrologiya [Stochastic hydrology]. Leningrad, Publ. Gidromete-oizdat, 1975. 163 p. (In Russian).
Medvedev V.S., Potemkin V.G. Neironnye seti. Matlab 6. [Neural Network Matlab 6]. Moscow, Publ. Dialog-MIFI, 2002. 496 p. (In Russian).
Meshcherskaya A.V., Rukhovets L.V., Yudin M.I., Yakovleva N.I. Estestvennye sostavlyayushchie mete-orologicheskikh polei [Natural constituents of meteoro-logical fields]. Leningrad, Publ. Gidrometeoizdat, 1970. 200 p. (In Russian).
Sokolov O.V., Druz' N.I. Avtomatizirovannyi issle-dovatel'skii programmnyi kompleks dlya tselei progno-za elementov pogody [Automated software package complex for prediction of weather patterns]. Problemy transporta Dal'nego Vostoka [Transport problems of the Far East], 2005, pp. 211-213. (In Russian).
Svinukhov G.V. Sinoptiko-statisticheskie metody dol-gosrochnykh prognozov pogody na Dal'nem Vostoke [Synoptically-statistical methods of weather long range forecast at the Far East]. Leningrad, Publ. Gidrome-teoizdat, 1977. 168 p. (In Russian).
Vinogradov Yu.B. Matematicheskoye modelirovaniye protsessov formirovaniya stoka [Mathematical Model-ing of River Runoff Formation Processes]. Leningrad, Publ. Gidrometeoizdat, 1988. 311 p. (In Russian).
Abstract views: 170 PDF Downloads: 0
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
1.png)
