POSSIBILITIES OF ASSESSING THE FLOOD RUNOFF PROBABILITY IN ANGARA REGION (IYA RIVER AS EXAMPLE)

Section
Methods, models and technologies
Keywords: Angara River, left bank tributaries, Iya River, Tulun City, flood hazard, maximum run off, distribution curves, probability

This work aim is analyzing the flood hazard in the Angara region with using stochastic hydrology methods. This region is characterized by greatest danger of summer rain floods, relatively rare but systematic, and are very dangerous. The possibility is studied to construct one-dimensional analytical distribution curves that reliably approximates a series of observed maximum annual discharges and allow to give a reasonable estimate of the extreme floods probability – using the example of extraordinary floods on the Iya River in 1984 and 2019. A number of three-parameter probability laws and methods of probability curves parameterization was used.

Resulting, 14 variants of analytical distribution curves were constructed, compared by the statistical and rational criteria. Despite the several versions satisfy to almost all the requirements, it seems impossible to solve the problem qualitatively on their basis. All acceptable curve versions underestimate the probability for extraordinary floods of 1984 and 2019 years. Some of these versions go beyond the
5-95% confidence intervals of empirical probability curve, or are the results of direct mathematical fitting without the satisfactory conceptual reasons.

Thus, it was not possible to construct adequate three-parameter  maximum discharge distribution for the Iya River according to above requirements. The complexity of the runoff formation processes in the region, different generation mechanisms of ordinary and extraordinary floods, obviously, leads to statistical heterogeneity of the series, which cannot be correctly described by one-dimensional three-parameter distribution laws. To assess the extraordinary floods probability, it seems most appropriate to use dynamic-stochastic modeling based on a physically based runoff model

Boris I. Gartsman,
Water Problems Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

E-mail: gartsman@inbox.ru
eLibrary (РИНЦ) SPIN-код:
 7792-9120
Scopus ID:
 24438012800
ORCID iD:
 0000-0002-5876-7015

Tatiana S. Gubareva,
Water Problems Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

E-mail: tgubareva@bk.ru
eLibrary (РИНЦ) SPIN-код: 1182-6988
Scopus ID: 18436324800
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4788-0784

Natalia V. Kichigina,
V.B. Sochava Institute of Geography SB RAS, Irkutsk, Russia

E-mail: nkichigina@mail.ru
eLibrary (РИНЦ) SPIN-код: 9872-8977
Scopus ID: 14011980600
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-2350-6795

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Published
2020-12-31
How to Cite
Boris I. Gartsman, Tatiana S. Gubareva, & Natalia V. Kichigina. (2020). POSSIBILITIES OF ASSESSING THE FLOOD RUNOFF PROBABILITY IN ANGARA REGION (IYA RIVER AS EXAMPLE). Hydrosphere. Hazard Processes and Phenomena, 2(4), 347-364. https://doi.org/10.34753/HS.2020.2.4.347

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