ASSESSMENT OF THE USSURI RIVER FLOOD REGIME CHANGES REGARDING TO CLIMATE PROJECTIONS TO THE END OF THE XXI CENTURY

Section
Hazardous processes in the hydrosphere: fundamental and engineering aspects
  • Boris I.Gartsman Water Problems Institute of RAS, Moscow, Russia, Pacific Geographical Institute of FEB RAS, Vladivostok, Russia
  • Sergei Yu.Lupakov Water Problems Institute of RAS, Moscow, Russia, Pacific Geographical Institute of FEB RAS, Vladivostok, Russia
Keywords: dynamic–stochastic modeling, the Ussuri river, climate changes, climate projections, General Circulation Models

Detecting reaction of river systems to climate changes is one of the key problems in modern hydrology. Moreover, this is the case of the Far East of Russia, where moisture regime variability is well known. The presented article deals with the assessment results of changes in the flood characteristics of the Ussuri rivers basins under the expected climate changes, linked with global warming. The estimates are based on dynamic–stochastic modeling scheme, in which numerous synthetic precipitation series are input to the hydrological model for searching of all kinds of humidification conditions at the investigated catchments. There was used a regional hydrological Flood Cycle Model of small river basin that focuses on the description of runoff formation processes in the summer–autumn flood period. Climate changes input is based on the integration of the regional stochastic rainfall model and General Circulation Models (GCM) data to the end of XXI century (2071–2100).

It is shown that an increase in precipitation sum leads to an unproportional response of the evaluated flood flow characteristics. The relative increase in the mean values of the maximum flow reaches 4–5 times and 2–3 times for the seasonal runoff depth depending on applied GCM and climate scenarios. The obtained results are consistent with the analysis of observational data using the “elasticity coefficient” and previous investigations. Therefore, flood risks could be expected at the investigated territory due to climate changes.

Boris I.Gartsman,
Water Problems Institute of RAS, Moscow, Russia, Pacific Geographical Institute of FEB RAS, Vladivostok, Russia

E-mail: gartsman@inbox.ru
eLibrary SPIN-код: 7792-9120
Scopus ID: 24438012800
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-5876-7015

Sergei Yu.Lupakov,
Water Problems Institute of RAS, Moscow, Russia, Pacific Geographical Institute of FEB RAS, Vladivostok, Russia

E-mail: rbir@mail.ru
eLibrary (РИНЦ) SPIN-код: 9365-4537
Scopus ID: 57195678222
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-5804-2604

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Published
2019-12-10
How to Cite
Boris I.Gartsman, & Sergei Yu.Lupakov. (2019). ASSESSMENT OF THE USSURI RIVER FLOOD REGIME CHANGES REGARDING TO CLIMATE PROJECTIONS TO THE END OF THE XXI CENTURY. Hydrosphere. Hazard Processes and Phenomena, 1(1), 52-70. https://doi.org/10.34753/HS.2019.1.1.006

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