FLOOD SIMULATION IN THE KAMA RIVER BASIN OF 2005
Global climate warming increases the total moisture content of the atmosphere, which creates favorable conditions for the formation of intense surface precipitation and downpours. Modern flood warning systems are still not effective enough, especially in places with a sparse network of meteorological observations. Mathematical models of the atmosphere based on complete equations of hydrodynamics allow us to calculate the intensity of precipitation with high detail with sufficient advance. This paper examines the issue of combining a regional non-hydrostatic atmospheric model Weather Research and Forecasting Model (dynamic core of advanced research) with a hydrological model for RiverFlow 2 Dimension Graphics Processing Unit size in order to assess the accuracy of reproduction of rain floods on two rivers of the Ural Kama region: Usva and Obva on June 22, 2005. The rise of water levels in the rivers was caused by convective and surface precipitation on the frontal systems of a deep southern cyclone. In some observation points, up to 50 mm of precipitation fell during the period of 12 hours. At the first stage of the study, model precipitation fields were obtained in nodes of a regular grid with a step of 3 km. Then the procedure of precipitation assimilation by the hydrological model was carried out. It is established that using a digital relief model with a high resolution increases the accuracy of calculating the maximum water flow. A method of preliminary assimilation of precipitation data by a hydrological model is proposed for adequate reproduction of the initial conditions of water flow at the lower point of the catchment before the flood. For a mountainous area, an underestimation of flood water consumption was found in comparison with the actual data. For the Obva River catchment, an overestimation of the maximum costs compared to the actual costs was revealed. To increase the accuracy of the forecast of maximum levels, it is necessary to take into account the processes of evaporation and infiltration for the period preceding the development of the flood. The results obtained can be taken into account when preparing forecasts of heavy rains occurrence and when developing flood forecast techniques
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