ПАУЗЫ В ИЗМЕНЕНИИ СРЕДНЕМЕСЯЧНОЙ ТЕМПЕРАТУРЫ В СЕВЕРНОМ И ЮЖНОМ ПОЛУШАРИЯХ И ИХ ВОЗМОЖНЫЕ ПРИЧИНЫ

The controversial issue of presence or absence and duration of the pause in global temperature change in 1998–2013 is a subject of numerous researches. We considered character and reasons of spatiotemporal changes in linear trends of normalized average monthly temperature in Northern and Southern hemispheres over the period from 1911 to 2020. The objective of the work is to show features of changes in linear temperature trend coefficients for different periods of time, seasons of the year and months in different hemispheres. NOAA’s NCEI (National Centers for Environmental Information of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States of America) data were used for the research.

Comparative analysis of the linear trends in mean monthly temperature values for different time periods revealed the pause presence in winter temperature changes in the Northern Hemisphere, in autumn and, to a lesser extent, in summer and winter in the Southern Hemisphere (1998–2013). The temperature rising rate in the Northern Hemisphere during the current climate warming period was approximately 1.9 times higher than for the previous warming (1911–1944). It was found that in May – October intense climate warming began in the mid 1940-s in the Southern Hemisphere, i.e. thirty years earlier than in the Northern Hemisphere. This fact contradicts the theory of modern greenhouse climate warming. However, the high climate warming rate in recent decades in the Northern Hemisphere is consistent with theory. A critical analysis of the possible causes for the formation of rises and pauses in the global temperature change is carried out. The general reason of formation of the pause
(1998–2013) in changes of temperature of Northern and Southern hemispheres is decrease in amount of water vapor in 2003–2012. The highest intensity of this process is observed in 36° N–36° S latitudinal belt.