Assessment of Avalanche Hazard in Engineering Surveys. Standards and Reality

Authors

  • Pavel A. Chernous Special Research Bureau for Automation of Marine Researches of the Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.34753/HS.2025.7.3.232
+ Keywords

avalanche activity, hazard characteristics, methods of assessment, reliability, standards

+ Abstract

The article reviews empirical and physically based models of snow avalanche occurrence and movement, as well as their various practical implementations. It is shown that the general shortcoming of regulatory methods for assessing avalanche hazard characteristics is the lack of guidelines for assessing the accuracy of the results obtained. The main problem to obtaining reliable avalanche hazard characteristics is the rarity of avalanche events, the limited length of observational records, and the lack of robust, physically based comprehensive models of avalanche release and motion. In this regard, it seems that regulatory requirements for obtaining the values of these characteristics of a given probability are insufficiently substantiated. The requirements for taking into account the influence of certain factors (e.g., climatic) on the characteristics of avalanche activity in the survey area are also overly demanding. The main shortcomings of current regulatory documents that need to be corrected are identified. Proposals are provided for updating regulatory documents in line with the current level of knowledge about snow avalanches.

+ Author Biographies

Pavel A. Chernous

Ph. D. (Geography), leading researcher, Special Research Bureau for Automation of Marine Researches of the Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, Russia, SPIN-code: 9801-3555, http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6006-5717, e-mail: pchernous48@gmail.com.

+ References

1. Турчанинова А.С. Сравнительный анализ методик расчета динамических параметров снежных лавин при проведении инженерных изысканий // Геориск. 2012. №2. С. 32–36. https://www.geomark.ru/journals_list/zhurnal-georisk-22012/?attach=2062.

2. Благовещенский В.П. Определение лавинных нагрузок. Алма-Ата: изд-во «Гылым», 1991. 116 с.

3. Козик С.М. Расчет движения снежных лавин. Л.: Гидрометеоиздат, 1962. 74 с.

4. Божинский А.Н., Лосев К.С. Основы лавиноведения. Л.: Гидрометеоиздат, 1987. 276 с.

Bozhinskiy A.N., Losev K.S. The Fundamentals of Avalanche Science. Publication No. 55 (Swiss federal Institute of Snow and Avalanche Research, Davos Dorf). 1998, 280 p.

5. Miklau F., Sauermoser S., Mears A. (Eds.) The Technical Avalanche Protection Handbook. Wilhelm: Ernst and Sohn, 2014. 433 p.

6. McClung, D.M., Schaerer, P.A. The Avalanche Handbook, third ed. Seattle, The Mountaineers Books, 2006. 117 p.

7. Гляциологический словарь. Ред. В.М. Котляков. Л.: Гидрометеоиздат, 1984. 528 с.

8. Lied, K., Bakkehøi, S., 1980. Empirical calculations of snow-avalanche run-out distance based on topographic parameters // J. Glaciol. 1980, 26 (94), pp. 165–177. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3189/S0022143000010704.

9. Christen M., Kowalski J., Bartelt P. RAMMS: numerical simulation of dense snow avalanches in three-dimensional terrain // Cold Regions Science and Technology. 2010. 63, 1–2, pp. 1–14. DOI: 10.1016/J.COLDREGIONS.2010.04.005.

10. Christen M., Bartelt P., Gruber U. AVAL-1D: An avalanche dynamics program for the practice International Congress INTERPRAEVENT 2002 in the Pacific Rim – Matsumoto, Japan. Congress publication. 2002. vol. 2, pp. 715–725. https://www.dora.lib4ri.ch/wsl/islandora/object/wsl:17895.

11. Sampl P., Granig M. Avalanche Simulation with SAMOS-AT // International Snow Science Workshop, Davos, Proceedings. 2009, pp. 519–523. https://doi.org/10.3189/172756404781814780.

12. Haland G., Norem H. Orset K. I., Frekhaug M. H. An assessment of run-out models applied to extreme Norwegian snow avalanches. Proceedings, International Snow Science Workshop, Breckenridge, Colorado, 2016, pp. 165–172. https://arc.lib.montana.edu/snow-science/objects/ISSW16_O7.03.pdf.

13. Bakkehøi, S., Domaas, U., Lied, K. Calculation of snow avalanche runout distance // J. Glaciol. 1983, 4, pp. 24–29. DOI:10.1017/S0260305500005188.

14. Delparte, D.M., Jamieson, B., Waters, N. Statistical runout modeling of snow avalanches using GIS in Glacier National Park, Canada // Cold Reg. Sci. Technol. 2008, 54 (3), pp. 182–192. DOI:10.1016/j.coldregions.2008.07.006.

15. Furdada, G., Vilaplana, J., Statistical predication of maximum avalanche run-out distances from topographic data in the western Catalan Pyrenees // Ann. Glaciol. 1998, 26, pp. 185–288. DOI:10.1017/S0260305500007825.

16. Johannesson, T. Icelandic Avalanche Runout Models Compared with Topographical Models Used in Other Countries // Publ. Nor. Geotek. Inst. 1998, 203, pp. 43–52. https://ngi.brage.unit.no/ngi-xmlui/bitstream/handle/11250/3082420/JohannessonT%281998%29.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y.

17. Johnston, K.S., Jamieson, B., Jones, A. Estimating extreme avalanche runout for the Columbia Mountains and Fernie Area of British Columbia, Canada // Can. Geotech. J. 2012, 49 (11), pp. 1309–1318.

+ Read article online

Downloads

Published

2025-12-15

Issue

Vol. 7 No. 3 (2025): Hydrosphere. Hazard processes and phenomena

Section

Conference materials

License

Copyright (c) 2025 Павел Александрович Черноус

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

How to Cite

Chernous, P. A. (2025). Assessment of Avalanche Hazard in Engineering Surveys. Standards and Reality. Hydrosphere. Hazard Processes and Phenomena, 7(3), 232-241. https://doi.org/10.34753/HS.2025.7.3.232