EXPERIENCE OF RELEASE OF AN AVALANCHE BULLETIN FOR THE MOUNTAIN REGION OF ILE ALATAU
Authors
- Vitaly V. Zhdanov Institute of Geography and Water Security, Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan
- Victor P. Blagovechshenskiy Institute of Geography and Water Security, Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan
- Tamara S. Gulyayeva Institute of Geography and Water Security, Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.34753/HS.2022.4.3.230+ Keywords
+ Abstract
The most common method of communicating avalanche forecasts to the public is the avalanche bulletin. They are compiled at most major avalanche forecasting and research centers. Bulletins provide up-to-date information on snow cover stability, avalanche danger level, main avalanche problems and weather forecast. Consumers of information are tourists, skiers, administrations of tourist facilities. On their basis, they can plan the work of ski resorts and other recreational activities. In the Republic of Kazakhstan, a reference-recommendation on avalanche danger in the mountains is compiled only for government apparatus, and the population is deprived of information about avalanches. For several years, an experiment has been carried out in the laboratory of natural hazards of the Institute of Geography to issue an avalanche bulletin. For this, current avalanche and meteorological information is collected at three mountain meteorological stations – Lake Ulken Almaty, Mynzhylki and Shymbulak. The level of avalanche danger is assessed weekly according to the Kazakhstan version of the European five-point danger scale. Classification of avalanche danger levels is carried out using a specially created neural network. Information about the level of avalanche danger, the state of the snow cover and the weather forecast is indicated in the weekly avalanche bulletin. The accuracy of the classification of avalanche situations using artificial intelligence was 84–90%. The final accuracy of forecasts of the level of avalanche danger, taking into account the weather forecast, was 73–82%. The bulletin is published on the Internet and telegram channel before every weekend. In the future, it is planned to introduce the experience gained into the work of the official avalanche service of the Republic of Kazakhstan.
+ Author Biographies
eLibrary (РИНЦ) ORCID ID Scopus ID 9204-7369 0000-0001-7678-1374 57195073468 eLibrary (РИНЦ) ORCID ID Scopus ID AuthorID: 275472 0000-0002-8032-283X 55807973400
Vitaly V. Zhdanov, Institute of Geography and Water Security, Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan
SPIN-код
Victor P. Blagovechshenskiy, Institute of Geography and Water Security, Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan
SPIN-код
Tamara S. Gulyayeva, Institute of Geography and Water Security, Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan
+ References
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