Эколого-хозяйственные риски водопользования в условиях трансформации климата и водного режима

Using the example of the regions of the Central Black Earth Region, the main features of the water regime of rivers formed as a result of climate change and the associated potential environmental and economic risks of water use are considered. For a region with pronounced agricultural and industrial components in the economy, the hydroecological state of rivers and artificial reservoirs as sources of water supply is relevant. The purpose of this study is to analyze the transformation of water content of river flows in the Central Black Earth Region and the potential risks of water use under changing natural and climatic conditions. The initial database was formed on the basis of open and accessible sources of hydrometeorological and water management information. The materials were processed using traditional methods of hydrometeorological statistics, hydrological analogy, and graphic interpretation of the results. It has been established that in the first decade of the current century, trends in water use continued to reduce the volume of water consumption. As an example, the volumes of fresh water intake are considered. In the second decade, the quantitative withdrawal of water stabilized. There is an active transformation of water content on the rivers. In the water regime, a decrease in runoff volumes and flood maximums, an increase in winter runoff and summer-autumn low water were noted. A special feature of the water regime is the formation of abnormally high rain floods in 2016 and 2022. The changes are associated with climate fluctuations. In the exceptionally low-water year 2020, the maximum flood water flow of 211 m³/s was recorded, which is 53 times less than the historical maximum of 1888, equal to 11200 m³/s. One of the reasons for low floods is the condition of the soil on the eve of snowmelt, its moisture content and freezing depth. The lack of water in the current years is fraught with environmental and economic risks associated both with a lack of water during scarce seasons of water consumption, for example, in the agricultural industry in the summer of 2020, and with the filling of small artificial reservoirs that play an important role in agricultural water use. When the volume of flood flow is reduced, the ecological function of the water flow and its diluting ability are inhibited.